Any chance for a Corbyn led Labour Party?

There is a strongly held view among some in the Labour Party, the mainstream media, and the Conservatives that a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour leadership election will consign the party to its worst defeat since that under Michael Foot in 1983. This has led to the slightly bizarre phenomenon of the 'ToriesForCorbyn' Twitter campaign. These views are due to a misinterpretation of history and very poor maths.

First, why did Foot lose in 1983? It certainly was a terrible defeat but what is often forgotten is that in the early days of his leadership Labour were well ahead of the Conservatives in opinion polls (for what they are worth) and did OK in local elections. Commentators in 2015 conveniently forget that the Falklands War transformed everything for Margaret Thatcher and her victory in 1983 was built in that crest of popularity - shored up by the then very powerful press.The earlier lead that Labour had built up was also badly effected by the defection of many into the SDP. While we can't predict it, this set of circumstances will hopefully not be repeated. Engagement in a war like the Falklands is unlikely, the printed press is nowhere near as powerful as it was, social media is much more evenly split along party lines, and it is doubtful that even those to the right of the party will up and leave.

Second, what do I mean by poor maths? The Conservatives  have a 12-seat majority. This is smaller than the one John Major had and far less than what the Conservatives had in 1979. The Liberal Democrats were decimated at the election and the only way for them is up, Under the likeable and principled Tim Farron it is highly probable that they will make gains next time, especially at the Conservatives' expense in the West country. The SNP on the other hand realistically can only go in the opposite direction. That is not to say they won't do very well, but Labour should probably grab a handful of seats off them in 2020. UKIP is an unknown factor and their prospects must rest on the EU-referendum. If we vote to stay in then we would expect the wind to go out of their sail and they will dwindle somewhat. Likewise, a bruising debate will cause much internal damage to the Conservatives and they will be in a poor position to put much energy into the 2020 election. Will Labour win a majority? Perhaps not. But it is very likely that given the maths they will be able to form a minority government or go into a coalition with a more progressive Liberal Democrat party and maybe even the SNP. All of this suggests that whoever wins the leadership will stand a very good chance of being PM. I hope that is Jeremy Corbyn.